Background

Notes and format last updated May 7, 2020

Starting on the May 7th update, the NY Times began including probable covid cases/deaths along with confirmed. This mostly affects death counts – for certain geographies that include probable COVID deaths in addition to confirmed, these are now added to the totals. For the time being, they were all added to the May 6th totals, causing a big spike at the U.S. level. Over time, NY Times will revise their historical counts and distribute these added deaths when they actually occurred, so the spike should fade.

Growth rates

Heat maps

  • The two heat maps below compare how quickly total cases or deaths have grown at various times in our respective geopgraphies.
  • The first plot compares growth rate for total cases; the second, growth rate for total deaths.
  • The metric used is doubling time, by which I mean how quickly total cases or deaths are doubling.
  • The plots track that doubling time at each date for our geographies. Darker colors reflect shorter doubling times, and thus periods of faster growth.
    • You can use the plots to track each geography over time and to compare the geographies to one another.
    • You can also compare the cases and death charts, to see how faster periods of death growth follow faster periods of case growth.

Case growth rates

  • This section charts the growth rate of both total and new cases for each of our respective geographies. Each geography has its own chart, and then that chart will have a trendline for total cases and new cases.
    • There are only plots for the U.S. and states because the numbers for the counties are too small to generate worthwhile trendlines in this section.
  • Note that we’re charting growth rate and not a count of cases, so don’t think of these as the standard “curve” that we hear about in the news and that we want to flatten. Instead, these growth rate charts help track more precisely what we can only estimate when we see those other curves. For these growth rate charts, if the line is above zero, the metric we are tracking (total or new cases) is continuing to grow. If the growth rate line is going up, it’s growing more quickly each day; if it’s going down but still above zero, it’s growing less quickly (but still growing). Only when the growth rate lines go below zero has the metric stopped growing.
  • Each of these two lines uses rolling windows to calculate a growth rate for that particular metric. I do the calculation differently for each to smooth out some of the large day-to-day discrepancies in new case reporting at the state level.
    • For total cases, the trendlines are a rolling 3-day average of daily growth rates in total cases. We want to see these decline (and almost all are), but they can’t go below zero. This is because we’re tracking growth rate and a growth rate line below zero would mean total cases have gone down, which can’t happen. They can only grow less quickly, which means we want to see the total case line get as close to zero as possible.
    • For new cases, the trendlines show a rolling 3-day average of daily growth rate in the rolling 7-day average of new cases. Including two rolling periods in this average helps smooth out crazy spikes at the state level that result from large day-to-day changes. Unlike the lines for total cases, we want to watch for the lines for new cases to get consistently below zero and stay there. That means that we are consistently seeing fewer new cases on a daily basis.

U.S.

Our states

Death growth rates

  • This section charts the growth rate of both total and new deaths for each of our respective geographies. Each geography has its own chart, and then that chart will have a trendline for total deaths and new deaths.
    • There are only plots for the U.S. and states because the numbers for the counties are too small to generate worthwhile trendlines in this section.
  • Note that we’re charting growth rate and not a count of deaths, so don’t think of these as the standard “curve” that we hear about in the news and that we want to flatten. Instead, these growth rate charts help track more precisely what we can only estimate when we see those other curves. For these growth rate charts, if the line is above zero, the metric we are tracking (total or new deaths) is continuing to grow. If the growth rate line is going up, it’s growing more quickly each day; if it’s going down but still above zero, it’s growing less quickly (but still growing). Only when the growth rate lines go below zero has the metric stopped growing.
  • Each of these two lines uses rolling windows to calculate a growth rate for that particular metric. I do the calculation differently for each to smooth out some of the large day-to-day discrepancies in new death reporting at the state level.
    • For total deaths, the trendlines are a rolling 3-day average of daily growth rates in total deaths. We want to see these decline (and almost all are), but they can’t go below zero. This is because we’re tracking growth rate and a growth rate line below zero would mean total deaths have gone down, which can’t happen. They can only grow less quickly, which means we want to see the total death line get as close to zero as possible.
    • For new deaths, the trendlines show a rolling 3-day average of daily growth rate in the rolling 7-day average of new deaths. Including two rolling periods in this average helps smooth out crazy spikes at the state level that result from large day-to-day changes. Unlike the lines for total deaths, we want to watch for the lines for new deaths to get consistently below zero and stay there. That means that we are consistently seeing fewer new deaths on a daily basis.

U.S.

Our states

By population rankings

This section tracks metrics for states and counties normalized for population (number of cases or deaths per million residents), and then compares these figures both for our geographies and the country overall.

States

  • This section shows tables ranking all 50 states for per populations rates of total cases, new cases, total deaths, and new deaths.
  • For each metric, in addition to the tables, the trends for the top states are plotted over time.
    • We only plot the top ten states for each metric so that the plots aren’t too crowded. But you can view the full 50-state rankings in the tables.

Total confirmed cases

Table of total confirmed cases per million residents (all 50 states)
Ranking State Cases Per Million
1 North Dakota 141,867
2 Rhode Island 140,836
3 South Dakota 139,119
4 Utah 124,469
5 Tennessee 122,429
6 Arizona 118,980
7 Iowa 116,183
8 Nebraska 114,102
9 Wisconsin 114,021
10 Oklahoma 113,537
11 New Jersey 113,094
12 South Carolina 113,005
13 Arkansas 111,591
14 Delaware 108,240
15 Indiana 108,237
16 Alabama 107,980
17 Kansas 107,163
18 Illinois 106,543
19 New York 105,897
20 Idaho 105,490
21 Mississippi 105,072
22 Florida 104,942
23 Minnesota 103,316
24 Nevada 102,945
25 Montana 102,520
26 Georgia 101,851
27 Wyoming 100,971
28 Kentucky 100,766
29 Massachusetts 100,632
30 Texas 100,236
31 Louisiana 99,123
32 Missouri 98,435
33 Connecticut 95,804
34 Michigan 95,242
35 California 94,926
36 New Mexico 94,800
37 North Carolina 93,805
38 Alaska 93,107
39 Ohio 92,285
40 Pennsylvania 91,282
41 Colorado 90,244
42 West Virginia 86,463
43 Virginia 77,738
44 Maryland 74,578
45 New Hampshire 70,515
46 District of Columbia 68,070
47 Washington 54,083
48 Puerto Rico 52,390
49 Maine 46,761
50 Oregon 44,682
51 Vermont 37,255
52 Hawaii 23,438

New confirmed cases

Table of new cases per million residents: rolling 3-day average (all 50 states)
Ranking State New Cases Per Million
1 Michigan 393
2 Rhode Island 318
3 Maine 250
4 Alaska 234
5 Washington 226
6 Connecticut 218
7 North Carolina 217
8 Minnesota 197
9 Colorado 194
10 West Virginia 193
11 Pennsylvania 192
12 Illinois 179
13 Nevada 178
14 Florida 173
15 Wyoming 170
16 New Jersey 169
17 Delaware 168
18 Oregon 167
19 New Mexico 166
20 North Dakota 163
21 Louisiana 159
22 South Dakota 155
23 Tennessee 154
24 Idaho 147
25 Montana 145
26 Kentucky 138
27 Indiana 134
28 New Hampshire 123
29 New York 120
30 Massachusetts 117
31 Puerto Rico 117
32 Wisconsin 113
33 Kansas 112
34 Iowa 110
35 Ohio 106
36 Texas 106
37 Nebraska 102
38 South Carolina 101
39 Utah 100
40 Georgia 96
41 Arizona 95
42 Maryland 93
43 Mississippi 90
44 Missouri 90
45 District of Columbia 87
46 Virginia 86
47 Oklahoma 80
48 Arkansas 72
49 Vermont 64
50 Alabama 57
51 California 49
52 Hawaii 46

Total deaths

Table of total deaths per million residents (all 50 states)
Ranking State Deaths Per Million
1 New Jersey 2,892
2 New York 2,673
3 Massachusetts 2,561
4 Rhode Island 2,531
5 Mississippi 2,426
6 Arizona 2,385
7 Connecticut 2,278
8 Louisiana 2,241
9 South Dakota 2,233
10 Alabama 2,229
11 Pennsylvania 2,065
12 North Dakota 2,005
13 Indiana 1,986
14 New Mexico 1,949
15 Illinois 1,928
16 Michigan 1,911
17 Arkansas 1,906
18 Iowa 1,889
19 South Carolina 1,852
20 Georgia 1,849
21 Nevada 1,781
22 Tennessee 1,776
23 Texas 1,745
24 Kansas 1,730
25 Oklahoma 1,726
26 Delaware 1,671
27 Ohio 1,654
28 Florida 1,651
29 District of Columbia 1,571
30 California 1,570
31 Missouri 1,518
32 West Virginia 1,510
33 Kentucky 1,490
34 Montana 1,476
35 Maryland 1,457
36 Wisconsin 1,304
37 Minnesota 1,291
38 Virginia 1,270
39 Nebraska 1,226
40 Wyoming 1,226
41 North Carolina 1,215
42 Idaho 1,149
43 Colorado 1,122
44 New Hampshire 961
45 Washington 733
46 Puerto Rico 731
47 Utah 692
48 Oregon 598
49 Maine 588
50 Alaska 452
51 Vermont 397
52 Hawaii 340

New deaths

Table of new deaths per million residents: rolling 3-day average (all 50 states)
Ranking State New Deaths Per Million
1 Michigan 6
2 Florida 3
3 Missouri 3
4 New Jersey 3
5 Oklahoma 3
6 Pennsylvania 3
7 Rhode Island 3
8 South Dakota 3
9 West Virginia 3
10 Connecticut 2
11 Illinois 2
12 Louisiana 2
13 Maryland 2
14 Mississippi 2
15 Nevada 2
16 New Mexico 2
17 New York 2
18 North Carolina 2
19 Puerto Rico 2
20 Virginia 2
21 Alabama 1
22 Arkansas 1
23 California 1
24 Colorado 1
25 District of Columbia 1
26 Georgia 1
27 Idaho 1
28 Indiana 1
29 Kansas 1
30 Kentucky 1
31 Massachusetts 1
32 Minnesota 1
33 Montana 1
34 Nebraska 1
35 North Dakota 1
36 Ohio 1
37 South Carolina 1
38 Tennessee 1
39 Texas 1
40 Utah 1
41 Washington 1
42 Wisconsin 1
43 Wyoming 1
44 Alaska 0
45 Arizona 0
46 Delaware 0
47 Hawaii 0
48 Iowa 0
49 Maine 0
50 New Hampshire 0
51 Oregon 0
52 Vermont 0

Counties

  • This section focuses on the county level. It shows tables with our counties ranked by percentile of U.S. counties for per population rates of total cases and total deaths.
    • Each table also shows the top five counties in the country in addition to our counties, for added perspecive.
  • In addition to the tables, our counties’ percentile for both total cases and total deaths are plotted over time.

Confirmed cases

Table showing total cases per million and percentile for all US counties. Includes our counties and the top 5 in the US for perspective.
County State Cases Per Million Raw Ranking Percentile
Chattahoochee Georgia 363,253 1 99
Crowley Colorado 360,172 2 99
Bent Colorado 273,624 3 99
Dewey South Dakota 249,830 4 99
Lincoln Arkansas 245,700 5 99
Davidson Tennessee 141,786 187 94
Richland South Carolina 111,322 980 68
York South Carolina 110,069 1038 66
Orange California 85,180 2198 30
Pierce Washington 55,652 2867 8

Our county percentiles over time

Deaths

Table showing total deaths per million and percentile for all US counties. Includes our counties and the top 5 in the US for perspective.
County State Deaths Per Million Raw Ranking Percentile
Foard Texas 8,658 1 99
Galax city Virginia 8,193 2 99
Jerauld South Dakota 7,948 3 99
Emporia city Virginia 7,856 4 99
Hancock Georgia 7,686 5 99
Orange California 1,568 1823 41
York South Carolina 1,345 2085 33
Davidson Tennessee 1,343 2089 33
Richland South Carolina 1,323 2112 32
Pierce Washington 724 2741 12

Our county percentiles over time

Raw counts

Total confirmed cases

U.S.

Our states

Our counties

New confirmed cases

U.S.

Our states

Our counties

Total deaths

U.S.

Our states

Our counties

New deaths

U.S.

Our states

Our counties

Stay-at-home comparisons